Browse Canada's statistics for the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. ShadowStats Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [83% of the old pre-May 2020 M1]) notched lower to 121.6% off an upwardly revised August record high growth level of 123.3% [previously 123.1%] from its Pre-Pandemic Trough, up from a revised 114.6% previously 114.4%] in July. lower than in the previous month), and the estimated rate for unprocessed food is 16.9% (15.4% in the previous month), the highest value since July 1990. At the same time, the Pandemic-distorted and disrupted year-to-year gain for September 2022 Basic M1 eased to 11.6% from 12.8% [previously 12.7%] in August and 10.5% [previously 10.4%] in July 2022. Manufacturing Sector Has Never Recovered Pre-Great Recession Peak Levels The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points. In view of continuing signs of robust cost and price pressures, including the current tightness of the labour market, and the risk that those pressures become more persistent, the Committee voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 1.25%, at this meeting. I realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless. Broadly in line with ShadowStats estimates based on the FOMCs weekly reporting through October 5th, the September 2022 Monetary Base showed renewed and deepening monthly and annual contractions (Federal Reserve Board - FRB, ShadowStats). Business-Cycle Conditions Are Collapsing Rapidly, Amidst an Extreme Acceleration in Inflation Minimizing Reporting of Such, the Fed Just Redefined Money Supply M1; Given Newly Defined M1-Like Liquidity Characteristics for M2 Savings Deposits, Savings Have Been Shifted Retroactively from M2 to into M1, Effective as of May 2020 That said, in Business Cycle definitions, an economic downturn traditionally has been known as a Depression, which has two components the Recession and the Recovery. After the economic terror of the Great Depression, economic downturns took on the less-frightening Recession nomenclature. He received an A.B. Find the data you are looking for, such as data tables, microdata and data visualizations, on a wide range of subjects. September Monetary details have been posted [October 25th]. Within the expenditure components, household consumption had risen by 0.4% on the quarter and business investment, which was often subject to substantial revision, had fallen by 0.5%. Extended numerical detail and graphics are found in the ALTERNATE DATA Tab (see the ribbon at the top of the www.ShadowStats.com home page screen), and expanded in pending No. Within this latter set of indicators, inflation compensation measures in financial markets had fallen modestly, but they had remained well above their average levels of the past decade. 8: The near-term path for market-implied policy rates in the United States and in the euro area had risen significantly since the MPCs previous meeting, reaching around 3.6% and 1.3% respectively by end-2022. Here is how the September 2022 Money Supply numbers shaped up. It has the world's seventh-highest per capita GDP (nominal) and the eighth-highest per capita GDP (PPP) as of 2022. Find information about transportation in Canada. That said, strong year-to-year gains in headline Production were against impaired activity in year-ago September 2021 [Federal Reserve Board]. 2022 Jun. Headline year-to-year September 2022 PPI Construction Inflation of 23.09% notched higher from 22.95% in August. 2:45. 1461). The April CPI release had triggered the exchange of open letters between the Governor and the Chancellor of the Exchequer that was being published alongside these minutes. The Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. These members put a higher weight on the prospect of more resilience in demand or shortfalls in supply or both, such that cost and capacity pressures would remain relatively strong over the forecast period. 12: Taking together all of the evidence so far, the pass-through of the increases in risk-free rates to mortgage rates since the autumn of 2021 had been greater than in 2017-18 and much closer to the full pass-through that was seen prior to the financial crisis when interest rates had been further away from the lower bound. Statistics Canada offers a variety of customized products and services serving clients in Canada and around the world. For the Second Straight Month, Payrolls Declined Year-to-Year by 6.0% (-6.0%) Interest rates on unsecured borrowing had also increased slightly overall. 150 Tunney's Pasture Driveway Discover census data on citizenship and immigration; ethnocultural and religious composition of the population; and mobility and migration of Canadians. Revised August changes for those series showed a monthly decline for aggregate Production of 0.07% (-0.07%), a gain of 0.36% in Manufacturing, and a 0.63% gain in Mining. The annual rate of change of the index for energy products is estimated to be 22.2% (1.8 p.p. These global shocks could interact with domestic factors, including the tight labour market and the pricing strategies of firms, and could lead to more persistent inflationary pressures. Relative to 2022 Q1, the slowing in growth was still expected primarily to reflect temporary factors such as the additional bank holiday for the Platinum Jubilee as well as the anticipated fall in Test and Trace activity. COVID-19 vaccines and improved treatment have helped to stabilize a still-impaired level of economic activity, again well shy of full recovery, yet new Pandemic issues, including new variants and vaccination controversies, continue. As previously discussed here, and potentially of great significance in the domestic, broad economic picture, September 2022 Industrial Production Capacity Utilization -- a traditional and fundamental indicator of the regular economic cycle -- recovered its August 2018 business-cycle peak of 80.32%, for the first time, with an initial reading of 80.34%, albeit in context of several months of still pending volatile revisions, which usually are to the downside for this series. The more-liquid the Money measure, at present, the greater the growth and the greater the upside pressure on inflation. UK-weighted global growth in 2022 Q2 appears to be broadly in line with expectations. These members also judged that monetary policy should lean strongly against risks that recent trends in pay growth, firms pricing decisions, and inflation expectations in the economy more widely would become more firmly embedded. While higher rates continue to hit the Economy hard, contrary to FOMC hype, they do little to constrain current Inflation. The slowdown had continued to be most marked in indicators of consumption. Beyond the continuing impact of volatile gasoline prices, headline September inflation numbers continued in context of soaring inflation, triggered by the Pandemic-related explosive growth in the Federal Reserves Money Supply creation and in the Federal Governments Deficit Spending and related Federal Debt Expansion. The patterns here have shown a sharp enough fall off in activity to confirm the onset of a new or deepening Recession that began late in 2021, early in 2022 (see the pending discussion in No. Statistics Canada is embracing the possibilities of data science to better serve the information needs of Canadians. Third-Quarter 2022 Building Permits contracted an annualized quarterly pace of 28.7% (-28.7%), following a 23.6% (-23.6%) plunge in Second-Quarter 2022 activity, with year-to-year change turning negative by 5.0% (-5.0%). Pandemic-Disrupted U.3 Unemployment Effectively Was 9.0% in November 2020, Not the Headlined 6.7% -- In other recent numbers, September 2022 Real New Orders for Durable Goods declined 0.9% (-0.9%), net of Commercial Aircraft Orders, taking parallel Third-Quarter Real New Orders into its first quarterly contraction since Second-Quarter 2021. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category, August 2022 [1982-84=100, unless otherwise noted] Expenditure category Relative importance Jul. Such should continue to take a large bite out of inflation-adjusted Real Growth in pending September 2022 Construction Spending, keeping the Real, Inflation-Adjusted series negative month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year [See the earlier October 3rd August Construction Spending section]. The September 2022 year-to-year Production growth was at a 14-month high of 5.33%, up from Augusts 3.01%, its strongest reading since February 2022, but, again, that largely was due to depressed year-ago activity tied to bad weather and supply disruptions. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPCs forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation was projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. S Y S T E M I C .. R I S K -- FEDERAL RESERVE -- November 2nd FOMC (November 2nd, Federal Reserve Board - FRB) and September 2022 Money Supply) - As expected, the Federal Reserves November 2022 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised targeted Federal Funds Rate by another 75 basis points [0.75%], to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, with promises of further rate hikes likely to come, while holding other policies in place. (November 1st) SEPTEMBER 2022 CONSTRUCTION SPENDING - On top of the usual upside revisions to the two prior months activity, and net of continuing, extreme annual Construction Inflation, Real September 2022 Construction Spending declined year-to-year for the twelfth straight month, down by 9.9% (-9.9%), versus a revised drop of 10.5% (-10.5%) [previously 11.7% (-11.7%)] in August and a revised drop of 9.8% (-9.85) [previously 10.9% (-10.9%), initially 11.8% (-11.8%) in July], with the deepening fourth consecutive, quarterly year-to-year contraction of 10.0% [-10.0%}, and with a deepening annualized second consecutive quarterly contraction of 16.7% (-16.7%) in Third-Quarter 2022 activity (Census, BLS, ShadowStats). In the main, this reflected the stabilisation of the prices of commodities, albeit at elevated levels, and other tradable goods. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.7% in May 2022, compared with a rise of 0.6% in May 2021. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. 32: The Banks Agents had reported that pay settlements continued to be much higher than a year ago, with deals averaging just over 5%, a little above the 4.8% expected by companies in the Agents pay survey conducted near the beginning of this year. In terms of year-to-year change, the headline GDP growth has slowed from 3.68% in 1q2022, to 1.80% in 2q2022 and 1.77% in 3q2022, with the ShadowStats Alternate Slowing from 1.59% in 1q2022, to annual contractions of 0.26% (-0.26%) in 2q2022 and 0.28% (-0.28%)in 3q2022. That said, each month, headline Payroll data are revised back two months (both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted), with shifting seasonal adjustments. FLASH: October 25th. Other business survey indicators had continued to hold up. Walter J. Therefore, the Governing Council was intending to raise these rates by 0.25% at its July monetary policy meeting. Based on Third-Quarter 2022 CPI-W inflation, the 2022 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) headline increase is 8.7% for payments beginning January 2023; per the ShadowStats alternate estimate, it would have been 17.0%, had the CPI-W calculations not been redefined following the CPI Inflation and COLA spikes of 1980/ 1981. The inactivity rate had declined a little over recent months but was still higher than immediately before the pandemic. -- Despite recent GDP Benchmark Revisions and current gimmicked reporting, key Economic Series show not only that the Pandemic-driven Economic Collapse was worse than headlined, but also that the still-unfolding Recovery has been much weaker than indicated, again, amidst signals of renewed, faltering activity. Those price increases had raised UK inflation and, since the United Kingdom was a net importer of these items, would necessarily weigh on most UK households real incomes and many UK companies real profits. ET, November 22, 2022. The MPCs remit is clear that the inflation target applies at all times, reflecting the primacy of price stability in the UK monetary policy framework. 10: The sterling effective exchange rate had depreciated by around 2% since the previous MPC meeting and by almost 4% compared to the 15-day moving average on which the May Monetary Policy Report projections had been conditioned. P E N D I N G .. P O S T I N G S .. [Updated November 7th] - Posting of ShadowStats Commentary No. January 2021 Producer Price Index Monthly Inflation Hit a Record, 10-Year High On Top of Downside Revisions, Declining November Real Retail Sales Showed Renewed Economic Deterioration (November 4th Update/ October 27th) GDP -- ADVANCE ESTIMATE OF THIRD-QUARTER 2022 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [See the discussion in the Introduction and Opening Headlines from November 4th: The Administrations depletion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve gets credit for the Third-Quarter 2022 GDP gain. Comfortable neither with the recent extreme benchmarkings here, nor with the inconsistent, negligible benchmarkings in the closely related Industrial Production series, I continue to review a variety of related numbers and shall report in pending No. Recommend this page using: Facebook. We use analytics cookies so we can keep track of the number of visitors to various parts of the site and understand how our website is used. read more Inflation will end 2022 at a still-high 8.0% rate, but should drop to 3.5% by the end of 2023. Ten-year government bond yields had risen by around 40, 55 and 75 basis points in the United States, United Kingdom and Germany respectively. (October 12th)September 2022 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX September 2022 Finished Goods Producer Price Index (PPI), the currently published headline series, and the updated currently published Historical series since 1947, took another monthly hit, along with the monthly headline components of the Modern series created in 2009, thanks to the continued, albeit likely temporary, sharp decline in gasoline prices, and a related drop in annual PPI Energy Inflation from 52.8% in June 2022 to 35.7% in July and 26.3% August and 24.2% in September (BLS). Some indicators of business sentiment have weakened, although they have so far remained more resilient than indicators of consumer confidence and consistent with positive underlying GDP growth. "John" Williams was born in 1949. Suddenly, their model stopped working, and they asked me if I could fix it. Federal Reserve Sees Continuing Need for Inflation-Boosting Monetary Stimulus, With No Economic Recovery Expected Before 2023 CPI inflation was expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Best Wishes -- John Williams. Industrial production had also seen a decline, albeit somewhat smaller relative to the strictness of the lockdowns, as some companies had continued to operate via so-called closed-loop production systems. Payroll-Employment Benchmark Revisions Showed a Deepening, Accelerating Decline into an April 2020 Trough, With Renewed Deterioration at Present; Recovery from the Pandemic Shutdown Has Stalled and/or Is Regressing ALTERNATE DATA TAB [See the Menu Bar above] provides the latest headline numbers and exclusive ShadowStats Alternate Estimates and related Graphs of CPI Inflation [October 13], GDP [October 27], Unemployment [November 4], Money Supply [October 25] and the ShadowStats Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar [October 31]. For the period beyond October, staff estimates suggested that resetting the price cap on a quarterly, rather than semi-annual basis, had only modest implications for the CPI inflation projections, given the latest wholesale gas price futures curve. Financial market infrastructure supervision, Operational resilience of the financial sector, Greening our Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme (CBPS), Money Markets Committee and UK Money Markets Code, The PRAs statutory powers and enforcement, Gross Domestic Product Real-Time Database, Option-implied probability density functions. Click on the ALTERNATE DATA at the top of this screen to view the GDP graph [the accompanying data file there requires subscriber log-in]. Theoretically Equivalent Third-Quarter 2020 GDP (Product) and GDI (Income) Rebounded by Varying Annualized Quarterly Gains of 33.1% and 25.5%, Still Holding Far Shy of Economic Recovery 1: Before turning to its immediate policy decision, the Committee discussed: the international economy; monetary and financial conditions; demand and output; and supply, costs and prices. Changing any selection will automatically update the page content. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen did not describe in her Opening Message for 2021, as she had in 2020, and as her recent predecessors had done, that the current Fiscal Path was Unsustainable. Yet that concept still appeared early in the Opening Summary: The debt-to-GDP ratio was about 100 percent at the end of FY 2021 [around 130% in March 2022 - WJW]. For those interested, a COLA based on the headline CPI-U would have been 8.3%, while one based on the Chained-CPI-U (C-CPI-U), a government contemplated weaker inflation measure for replacing the CPI-W, would have been 8.0%. COLA considerations aside, headline CPI-U month-to-month inflation gained a seasonally adjusted 0.39% in September 2022, following 0.12% in August and a 0.02% (-0.02%) decline in July. We use necessary cookies to make our site work (for example, to manage your session). Under current FRB/ FOMC policies, headline economic activity should continue to falter, and inflation should continue to soar (expanded economic specifics are detailed in the later OPENING HEADLINE and LATEST NUMBERS Sections). FLASH (October 12th): In contrast to the happy, albeit temporary, energy-driven softening in September 2022 annual aggregate PPI Inflation, consider that the September PPI Construction Inflation held moved anew to its record-high pace of 23.1%. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. Surviving at least the first round of benchmarking opens the issue of declaring a Recession. For the Second-Quarter 2022 ShadowStats Alternate GDP, the benchmarked annualized real Second-Quarter 2022 quarterly contraction was 2.59% (-2.59%), narrowed from 3.62% (-3.62%) in First-Quarter 2022, with the initial estimate of the Third-Quarter 2022 ShadowStats Alternate GDP at an annualized quarterly growth rate of 0.49%. The flight of cash to relatively greater liquidity and safety in the narrower Money Supply measures leveled off in September, having accelerated in the August to its highest level (Basic M1/M2) in 52 years, since November 1970. UK GDP was weaker than expected in April, partly reflecting a further decline in Test and Trace activity. It had risen to 8.0% in April, compared to 3.8% in the euro area for the same month and 6.4%, on the PCE measure, in the United States. Other indicators of consumer spending had held up, however. Table 1. The Committee will be particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures, and will if necessary act forcefully in response. [See the OPENING HEADLINES.]. FLASH (October 12th): The original Producer Price Index Series - Finished Goods, which goes back to 1947, took a monthly hit in September 2022, along with the modern PPI series, from the continuing, albeit temporary plunge in gasoline/ energy prices, with the related historical PPI softening to a 11.5% year-to-year gain from a revised 12.8% [previously 12.7%] in August, 15.4% in July, and 18.3% in June; yet outside of recent extreme readings of the last year, this is a level of inflation otherwise not seen in 42 years. Inflation in the OECD rises further in May 2022, reaching 9.6% . CPI inflation was expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. On a monthly basis, both CPIH and CPI rose by 0.6% in July 2022, compared with no change in July 2021. Bureau of Labor Statistics Reveals It Cannot Measure the CPI Properly, At Present For all readers, in general, if you have any questions or otherwise would like to communicate, please e-mail johnwilliams@shadowstats.com or call (707) 763-5786. Discussions on the inflation threat and re-accelerating money growth are found in Special Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue No. Three members (Jonathan Haskel, Catherine L Mann and Michael Saunders) voted against the proposition, preferring to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 1.5%. Year-to-year gains increased from August to September 2022 for the major subsidiary series, with Manufacturing increasing from 3.45% to 4.63%, and Mining increasing from 8.73% to 11.14%, the latter tied to coal mining and oil production, versus a downturn in gold mining. Less-stable Third-Quarter 2022 Housing Starts contracted an annualized quarterly pace of 38.2% (-38.2%), following a 12.9% (-12.9%) drop in Second-Quarter 2022 activity, with year-to-year change turning negative by 6.9% (-6.9%). Where January 2021 Year-to-Year Manufacturing Contracted by 1.0% (-1.0%), It Also Contracted by 1.8% (-1.8%) from January 2019, Two Years Ago Keep scrolling down for SHADOWSTATS BACKGROUND, the BUSINESS CYCLE, SHADOWSTATS ALERT and the PENDING POSTINGS Sections. 2: UK-weighted global growth in 2022 Q2 appeared to be broadly in line with expectations at the time of the May Monetary Policy Report. Adjusted for the mechanical effects of the changes in workforce composition and the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, Bank staff estimated that underlying nominal private sector regular pay growth had remained above 4%, also consistent with expectations at the time of the May Report and in excess of pre-pandemic rates of around 3 to 3%. Federal Reserve Board (FRB) policies remained in place at the November 2022 Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (November 2nd FOMC Statement and Press Conference), along with an otherwise anticipated 75-basis point (0.75%) rate hike in the Federal Funds Rate. The MPC will take the actions necessary to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit. Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. - CONTROL OF CONGRESS: Control both of the U.S. Senate and of the U.S. House of Representatives remains undecided as we go to press on the 9th. Such was against unrevised 0.6% (-0.6%) and 1.7% (-1.7%) annualized contractions in the prior second- and first-quarters of 2022. GfK consumer confidence had fallen further in May, to below the previous low point for the series in mid-2008. Other than for its recent near-term peak readings, the September 2022 reading was the strongest in 75 years, since 17.6% in the traditional CPI reporting of June of 1947, topping an interim peak of 14.8% in March of 1980, when the headline CPI of the time still was the same series that would become the ShadowStats Alternate Inflation Series, after January 1982. September 2022 Money Supply -- As reported this afternoon by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), amidst mixed benchmark revisions, the September 2022 level of the most-liquid and the inflation-driving Money Supply measure Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [checking accounts]) revised higher in August 2022, setting a new all-time high level, up by an unprecedented 123.3% from its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Trough (PPT), where July was up by a revised 114.6% (previously 114.4%), but it notched lower to 121.6%, in its initial September 2022 reporting, with the headline, broadest based M2 at 39.1% in September, down from 39.9% in August and from 40.0% in July. According to contacts of the Banks Agents, growth had continued to be held back by supply chain disruptions, although companies were increasingly taking measures to alleviate the effects of these disruptions, for example by using alternative inputs and holding more stock. Separately, the broader Unemployment Rate U.6 already has defined out of existence, a large number of discouraged workers, who lost their jobs during the Pandemic, and who are not looking for work, at present, because they believe there are no jobs to be had. Collapsed Oil Prices Still Suppressed November CPI and PPI Annual Inflation; Yet, Oil Prices Suddenly Are Surging Anew The Federal Reserve Overhauled Its Money Supply Reporting, Redefining Traditional M1 from 34.8% to 93.4% of a Not-Redefined Total M2 The Banks Agents contacts had reported that one-off bonus payments had been used to address recruitment and retention difficulties. 35: The MPCs remit was clear that the inflation target applied at all times, reflecting the primacy of price stability in the UK monetary policy framework. Wide range of subjects make our site work ( for example, to below the previous point. Economy hard, contrary to FOMC hype, they do little to constrain inflation. 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